Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries

Hans Weisfeld, Irineu de Carvalho Filho, Fabio Comelli, Rahul Giri, Klaus-Peter Hellwig, Chengyu Huang, Fei Liu, Sandra Lizarazo, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel and Andrea Presbitero

No 2020/289, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial vulnerability concepts. The associated early warning systems draw on advances in predictive modeling.

Keywords: Early warning systems; crisis prediction; machine learning; low-income countries; inflation crisis; stress episode; crisis concept; crisis probability; missed crisis; LIC inflation trend; Inflation; Banking crises; Commodity prices; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 63
Date: 2020-12-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-cmp, nep-cwa, nep-fdg and nep-mac
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