The Impact of Political Uncertainty on Asset Prices: The Case of the United Kingdom's EU Membership Referendum

Niels-Jakob Hansen and Margaux MacDonald

No 2021/027, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: How did expectations of the outcome of the United Kingdom's (UK) referendum on European Union (EU) membership in 2016 affect prices in financial markets? We study this using high frequency data from betting and financial markets. We find that a one percentage point increase in the probability of "Leave" result caused British stocks (FTSE All-Share) to decline by 0.004 percent, and the Pound to depreciate by 0.006 percent against the euro. We find negative and significant effects for most sub-sectors, and negative spill-overs to other EU member countries. We show that the differential impact across sectors and countries can be explained by differences in the trade exposures.

Keywords: Brexit; EU referendum; political uncertainty; high frequency data. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 50
Date: 2021-02-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-int and nep-pol
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