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An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17

Oya Celasun, Jungjin Lee, Mico Mrkaic and Allan Timmermann

No 2021/216, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17 tend to be upward biased, and in up to half of countries less accurate than a naïve forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a more efficient use of available information on internal and external factors—such as the estimated output gap, projected terms of trade, and the growth forecasts of major trading partners—can improve the accuracy of some economies’ growth forecasts.

Keywords: Forecasting; forecasting bias and efficiency; WEO growth forecast; forecasting bias; Consensus Economics forecast; World Economic Outlook growth; forecast error; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Terms of trade; GDP forecasting; Output gap; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Caribbean; Middle East; North Africa; Global; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 47
Date: 2021-08-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-for and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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