Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Fragile States: Evidence from Panel Estimations

Rodolfo Maino and Drilona Emrullahu

No 2022/054, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenges to respond to the effects of climate shocks and rising temperatures. Fragility is linked to structural weaknesses, government failure, and lack of institutional basic functions. Against this setup, climate change could add to risks. A panel fixed effects model (1980 to 2019) found that the effect of a 1◦C rise in temperature decreases income per capita growth in fragile states in SSA by 1.8 percentage points. Panel quantile regression models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity, corroborate that the effects of higher temperature on income per capita growth are negative while the impact of income per capita growth on carbon emissions growth is heterogeneous, indicating that higher income per capita growth could help reduce carbon emissions growth for high-emitter countries. These findings tend to support the hypothesis behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the energy consumption growth literature, which postulates that as income increases, emissions increase pari passu until a threshold level of income where emissions start to decline.

Keywords: climate change; fragile states; climate risk; panel regressions Robustness test; panel quantile regression; panel regression estimate; energy consumption growth literature; quantile panel regression; Climate change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Income; Natural disasters; Carbon tax; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31
Date: 2022-03-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dev, nep-ene and nep-env
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=515159 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/054

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().