Political Institutions and Output Collapses
Patrick Imam (pimam@imf.org) and
Jonathan Temple
No 2023/036, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund
Abstract:
Major output collapses are costly and frequent in the developing world. Using cross-country data, we classify five-year periods using a two-dimensional state space based on growth regimes and political institutions. We then model the joint evolution of output growth and political institutions as a finite state Markov chain, and study how countries move between states. We find that growth is more likely to be sustained under democracy than under autocracy; output collapses are more persistent under autocracy; and stagnation under autocracy can give way to outright collapse. Democratic countries appear to be more resilient.
Keywords: Economic growth; autocracy; democracy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 60
Date: 2023-02-17
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro and nep-pol
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=525757 (application/pdf)
Related works:
Working Paper: Political Institutions and Output Collapses (2024)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/036
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi (amodi@imf.org).