Is High Debt Constraining Monetary Policy? Evidence from Inflation Expectations

Luis Brandão-Marques, Marco Casiraghi, R. Gaston Gelos (), Olamide Harrison and Gunes Kamber
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Luis Brandao Marques

No 2023/143, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper examines whether high government debt levels pose a challenge to containing inflation. It does so by assessing the impact of government debt surprises on inflation expectations in advanced- and emerging market economies. It finds that debt surprises raise long-term inflation expectations in emerging market economies in a persistent way, but not in advanced economies. The effects are stronger when initial debt levels are already high, when inflation levels are initially high, and when debt dollarization is significant. By contrast, debt surprises have only modest effects in economies with inflation targeting regimes. Increased debt levels may complicate the fight against inflation in emerging market economies with high and dollarized debt levels, and weaker monetary policy frameworks.

Keywords: Inflation expectations; monetary policy; fiscal dominance; debt; inflation expectation; debt surprise; government debt shock; share classification; debt dollarization; Inflation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Foreign currency debt; Fiscal stance; Global; Western Hemisphere (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33
Date: 2023-06-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Is high debt Constraining monetary policy? evidence from inflation expectations (2024)
Working Paper: Is high debt constraining monetary policy? Evidence from inflation expectations (2023)
Working Paper: Is High Debt Constraining Monetary Policy? Evidence from Inflation Expectations (2023)
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