Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable

Omer Faruk Akbal, Seung Mo Choi, Futoshi Narita and Jiaxiong Yao

No 2023/158, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.

Keywords: Developing economies; fragile and conflict-affected states; GDP; low-income countries; nowcasting; sub-Saharan Africa; GDP statistic; panel Nowcasting; data availability; growth data; annex II; data availablity; Commodity prices; Purchasing power parity; Data collection; Export fluctuations; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36
Date: 2023-08-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev and nep-mac
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