Financial Conditions in Europe: Dynamics, Drivers, and Macroeconomic Implications

Giovanni Borraccia, Raphael Espinoza, Vincenzo Guzzo, Romain Lafarguette, Fuda Jiang, Vina Nguyen, Miguel Segoviano and Philippe Wingender

No 2023/209, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: We develop a new measure of financial conditions (FCs) that targets the growth of financial liabilities using the partial least square methodology. We then estimate financial condition indexes (FCIs) across European economies, both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We decompose the changes in FCs into several factors including credit availability and costs, price of risk, policy stance, and funding constraints. Our results show that FCs loosened during the pandemic thanks to policy support but started to tighten significantly since mid-2021. Using the inverse probability weighting method over the sample period from 2000 to 2023, we find that a shift from a neutral to a tight FCI regime such as the ongoing episode for most European countries will on average lower output and inflation by 2.2 percent and 0.7 percentage points respectively and increase unemployment by 0.3 percentage points over a three-year horizon.

Keywords: Financial condition index; partial least square; funding constraints; credit availability and costs; price of risk; policy stance; inverse probability weighting; financial conditions in Europe; FCI regime; IMF working paper 2023/209; FCI indicator; measure of financial conditions; Inflation; Asset prices; Monetary tightening; Credit; Financial cycles; Europe; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 58
Date: 2023-09-29
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-eec, nep-fdg, nep-ifn and nep-mon
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=539653 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/209

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().