Enlarging the EMU to the East: What Effects on Trade?

Ansgar Belke and Julia Spies

No 3647, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to assess the implications of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) accession of eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) on their share in EMU-12 imports. Overcoming biases related to endogeneity, omitted variables and sample selection, our results indicate that the common currency has boosted intra-EMU imports by 7%. Under the assumption that the same relationship between the explanatory variables and imports will hold for EMU-CEEC trade, we are able to predict the future impact of the Euro. Our findings suggest that except for the least integrated countries, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, all CEECs can expect increases in the EMU-12 import share.

Keywords: Euro area enlargement; Central and Eastern European countries; gravity model; panel estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F15 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2008-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-int, nep-mon, nep-opm and nep-tra
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

Published - published in: Empirica, 2008, 35 (4), 369-389

Downloads: (external link)
https://docs.iza.org/dp3647.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Enlarging the EMU to the east: what effects on trade? (2008)
Working Paper: Enlarging the EMU to the east: What effects on trade? (2007)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3647

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Holger Hinte ().