Designing real terrorism futures

Robin Hanson

Public Choice, 2006, vol. 128, issue 1, 257-274

Abstract: In July 2003, the Policy Analysis Market (PAM) was described as terrorism futures, and immediately cancelled. While PAM was not in fact designed to be terrorism futures, I here consider five design issues with implementing and using real terrorism futures: combinatorics, manipulation, moral hazard, hiding prices, and decision selection bias. As neither these nor other problems seem insurmountable, terrorism futures appears to be a technically realistic possibility. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2006

Keywords: Terrorism; Prediction markets; Decision markets; Information markets; Idea futures; Manipulation; Moral hazard; Selection bias; Combinatorics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11127-006-9053-9

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