Beitragssatzentwicklung in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung und der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung – Projektionen und Determinanten

Gasche Martin and Rausch Johannes ()
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Gasche Martin: Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA), Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Amalienstraße 33, 80799 MünchenGermany
Rausch Johannes: Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA), Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Amalienstraße 33, 80799 MünchenGermany, Tel.: (089) 38602–350

Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, 2016, vol. 65, issue 3, 195-238

Abstract: We split the development of the contribution rate of the German health insurance (GKV) and social care insurance (SPV) analytically into a demographic effect, an expenditure effect and an income effect. It appears that in the medium term the demographic effect represents a considerable factor for both insurances. However, due to the steeper expenditures' profiles the effect of the demographic development is much larger in the SPV compared to the GKV. Actually, the contribution rate of the SPV is mainly driven by the demographic development, while the GKV contribution rate is mainly determined by the expenditure effect. Due to its characteristics of a partially comprehensive insurance with given flat service charges the expenditure effect plays only a minor role in the SPV. A higher fertility rate leads to a temporary larger increase of the GKV contribution rate due to higher expenditures for children. However, until 2060 this effect will be compensated by the increasing number of contributors.

Keywords: Social Long-term Care Insurance; Public Health Insurance; Financial Development; Aging Population; Simulations; Soziale Pflegeversicherung; Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung; Finanzielle Entwicklung; Bevölkerungsalterung; Simulationsrechnungen; Social Long-term Care Insurance; Public Health Insurance; Financial Development; Aging Population; Simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H51 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1515/zfwp-2016-0016

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