The Resilience of UK Regional Employment Cycles

Marianne Sensier and Michael Artis

Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series from Economics, The University of Manchester

Abstract: This paper dates the classical business cycle of quarterly UK GDP, unemployment, aggregate and regional employment to assess turning points in the economic cycle. We analyse synchronisation of the regions with UK employment and investigate which regions lead into recession. We perform the McNemar Test on groups of regions and arrive at Northern and Southern regional clusters. We find that the northern regions have had a greater incidence of recession with southern regions suffering more severe recessions (in terms of total jobs lost). Finally we compare the resilience of the regional employment cycle to UK employment. This most resilient region to the 2008 recession was London from our Southern grouping and the least resilient has been the Northern Ireland in our northern grouping.

Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-geo, nep-mac and nep-ure
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:man:cgbcrp:229

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