Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics

Joshua R. Goldstein and Ronald Lee ()
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Joshua R. Goldstein: Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020, vol. 117, issue 36, 22035-22041

Abstract: To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and remaining life years (11.7 y per death). Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality in other countries are quite similar and increase at rates close to each country’s rate for all-cause mortality. The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a period of months rather than spread out over decades.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemic; mortality; demography; life expectancy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Working Paper: Demographic Perspectives on Mortality of Covid-19 and Other Epidemics (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:22035-22041

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