Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure

Andrew Ang, Jean Boivin (), Sen Dong and Rudy Loo-Kung

No 15270, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We estimate the effect of shifts in monetary policy using the term structure of interest rates. In our no-arbitrage model, the short rate follows a version of the Taylor (1993) rule where the coefficients on the output gap and inflation vary over time. The monetary policy loading on the output gap has averaged around 0.4 and has not changed very much over time. The overall response of the yield curve to output gap components is relatively small. In contrast, the inflation loading has changed substantially over the last 50 years and ranges from close to zero in 2003 to a high of 2.4 in 1983. Long-term bonds are sensitive to inflation policy shifts with increases in inflation loadings leading to higher short rates and widening yield spreads.

JEL-codes: E4 E5 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
Note: AP ME
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (39)

Published as Andrew Ang & Jean Boivin & Sen Dong & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2011. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(2), pages 429-457.

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