Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models

Larry Jones and Alice Schoonbroodt

No 16596, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Economic demographers have long analyzed fertility cycles. This paper builds a foundation for these cycles in a model of fertility choice with dynastic altruism and aggregate shocks. It is shown that under reasonable parameter values, fertility is pro-cyclical and that, following a shock, fertility continues to cycle endogenously as subsequent cohorts enter retirement. Quantitatively, in the model, the Great Depression generates a large baby bust -- between 38% and 63% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1930s -- which is subsequently followed by a baby boom -- between 53% and 92% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1950s.

JEL-codes: E13 J11 J13 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dge and nep-mac
Note: EFG
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Published as Larry Jones & Alice Schoonbrodt, 2016. "Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 157-178, October.

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Related works:
Journal Article: Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models (2016)
Working Paper: Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models (2010)
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