When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China

Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin

No 16919, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.

JEL-codes: F00 O10 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev and nep-opm
Note: IFM
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (90)

Published as Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, February.

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w16919.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China (2012)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16919

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w16919

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().