What Do Consumers Believe About Future Gasoline Prices?
Soren Anderson,
Ryan Kellogg and
James Sallee
No 16974, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Abstract:
A full understanding of how gasoline prices affect consumer behavior frequently requires information on how consumers forecast future gasoline prices. We provide the first evidence on the nature of these forecasts by analyzing two decades of data on gasoline price expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We find that average consumer beliefs are typically indistinguishable from a no-change forecast, justifying an assumption commonly made in the literature on consumer valuation of energy efficiency. We also provide evidence on circumstances in which consumer forecasts are likely to deviate from no-change and on significant cross-consumer forecast heterogeneity.
JEL-codes: D84 L62 Q40 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-mkt
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (38)
Published as Anderson, Soren T. & Kellogg, Ryan & Sallee, James M., 2013. "What do consumers believe about future gasoline prices?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 383-403.
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Journal Article: What do consumers believe about future gasoline prices? (2013)
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