From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run

David Jacks

No 18874, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper considers the evidence on real commodity prices from 1900 to 2015 for 40 commodities, representing 8.72 trillion US dollars of production in 2011. In so doing, it suggests and documents a comprehensive typology of real commodity prices, comprising long-run trends, medium-run cycles, and short-run boom/bust episodes. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) real commodity prices have been on the rise—albeit modestly—from 1950; (2) there is a pattern—in both past and present—of commodity price cycles, entailing large and long-lived deviations from underlying trends; (3) these commodity price cycles are themselves punctuated by boom/bust episodes which are historically pervasive.

JEL-codes: E3 N7 Q30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Note: DAE
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (86)

Published as David S. Jacks, 2019. "From boom to bust: a typology of real commodity prices in the long run," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(2), pages 201-220, May.
Published as David S. Jacks, 2019. "From boom to bust: a typology of real commodity prices in the long run," Cliometrica, vol 13(2), pages 201-220.

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Journal Article: From boom to bust: a typology of real commodity prices in the long run (2019)
Working Paper: From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run (2013)
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