Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling

Serena Ng (serena.ng@columbia.edu) and Jonathan Wright

No 19469, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper provides a survey of business cycle facts, updated to take account of recent data. Emphasis is given to the Great Recession which was unlike most other post-war recessions in the US in being driven by deleveraging and financial market factors. We document how recessions with financial market origins are different from those driven by supply or monetary policy shocks. This helps explain why economic models and predictors that work well at some times do poorly at other times. We discuss challenges for forecasters and empirical researchers in light of the updated business cycle facts.

JEL-codes: C22 C32 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
Note: ME
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (206)

Published as Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-54, December.

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Journal Article: Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling (2013)
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