Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

No 19823, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We examine the evolution of real per capita GDP around 100 systemic banking crises. Part of the costs of these crises owes to the protracted nature of recovery. On average, it takes about eight years to reach the pre-crisis level of income; the median is about 6 ½ years. Five to six years after the onset of crisis, only Germany and the US (out of 12 systemic cases) have reached their 2007-2008 peaks in real income. Forty-five percent of the episodes recorded double dips. Postwar business cycles are not the relevant comparator for the recent crises in advanced economies.

JEL-codes: E32 E44 F44 G01 N10 N20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-cba, nep-his, nep-hpe, nep-mac and nep-opm
Note: IFM
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Published as Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.

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Journal Article: Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes (2014)
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