Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth

William Nordhaus

No 21547, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: What are the prospects for long-run economic growth? The present study looks at a recently launched hypothesis, which I label Singularity. The idea here is that rapid growth in computation and artificial intelligence will cross some boundary or Singularity after which economic growth will accelerate sharply as an ever-accelerating pace of improvements cascade through the economy. The paper develops a growth model that features Singularity and presents several tests of whether we are rapidly approaching Singularity. The key question for Singularity is the substitutability between information and conventional inputs. The tests suggest that the Singularity is not near.

JEL-codes: O3 O33 O4 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro
Note: EFG PR
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (67)

Published as William D. Nordhaus, 2021. "Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol 13(1), pages 299-332.

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Related works:
Journal Article: Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth (2021)
Working Paper: Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity" Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth (2015)
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