Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

Brian K. Chen, Hawre Jalal, Hideki Hashimoto, Sze-Chuan Suen, Karen Eggleston, Michael Hurley, Lena Schoemaker and Jay Bhattacharya

No 21870, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study adapts to the Japanese population the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a demographic and economic state-transition microsimulation model that projects the health conditions and functional status of Japan’s elderly population in order to estimate disability, health, and need for long term care. Our FEM simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific disability (or future compression of morbidity among middle-aged Japanese) may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly.

JEL-codes: I1 J1 J11 J14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-cmp, nep-for and nep-hea
Note: AG EH
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

Published as Brian K. Chen & Hawre Jalal & Hideki Hashimoto & Sze-chuan Suen & Karen Eggleston & Michael Hurley & Lena Schoemaker & Jay Bhattacharya, 2016. "Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, .

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Journal Article: Forecasting trends in disability in a super-aging society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan (2016)
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