Decomposing Duration Dependence in a Stopping Time Model

Fernando E. Alvarez, Katarína Borovičková and Robert Shimer

No 22188, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We develop a dynamic model of transitions in and out of employment. A worker finds a job at an optimal stopping time, when a Brownian motion with drift hits a barrier. This implies that the duration of each worker's jobless spells has an inverse Gaussian distribution. We allow for arbitrary heterogeneity across workers in the parameters of this distribution and prove that the distribution of these parameters is identified from the duration of two spells. We use social security data for Austrian workers to estimate the model. We conclude that dynamic selection is a critical source of duration dependence.

JEL-codes: E24 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets, nep-lab, nep-mac and nep-pke
Note: EFG LS
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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