Understanding Inflation in India

Laurence Ball, Anusha Chari and Prachi Mishra

No 22948, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper examines the behavior of quarterly inflation in India since 1994, both headline inflation and core inflation as measured by the weighted median of price changes across industries. We explain core inflation with a Phillips curve in which the inflation rate depends on a slow-moving average of past inflation and on the deviation of output from trend. Headline inflation is more volatile than core: it fluctuates due to large changes in the relative prices of certain industries, which are largely but not exclusively industries that produce food and energy. There is some evidence that changes in headline inflation feed into expected inflation and future core inflation. Several aspects of India’s inflation process are similar to inflation in advanced economies in the 1970s and 80s.

JEL-codes: E31 E58 F0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-12
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Published as Ball, Laurence & Chari, Anusha & Mishra, Prachi, 2016. "Understanding Inflation in India," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(1), pages 1-45.

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Journal Article: Understanding Inflation in India (2016)
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