Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks

André Kurmann and Eric Sims

No 23142, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper documents large revisions in a widely-used series of utilization-adjusted total factor productivity (TFP) by Fernald (2014) and shows that these revisions can materially affect empirical conclusions about the macroeconomic effects of news shocks. We propose an alternative identification that is robust to measurement issues with TFP, including the revisions in Fernald’s series. When applied to U.S. data, the shock predicts sustained future productivity growth while simultaneously generating strong impact responses of novel indicators of technological innovation and forward-looking information variables. The shock does, however, not lead to comovement in macroeconomic aggregates as typically associated with business cycle fluctuations.

JEL-codes: E22 E23 E32 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eff and nep-mac
Note: EFG ME
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

Published as André Kurmann & Eric Sims, 2021. "Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol 103(2), pages 216-235.

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w23142.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks (2021)
Working Paper: Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks (2017)
Working Paper: Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23142

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w23142

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().