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Speculative Dynamics of Prices and Volume

Anthony DeFusco, Charles G. Nathanson and Eric Zwick

No 23449, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Using data on 50 million home sales from the last U.S. housing cycle, we document that much of the variation in volume came from the rise and fall in speculation. Cities with larger speculative booms have larger price booms, sharper increases in unsold listings as the market turns, and more severe busts. We present a model in which predictable price increases endogenously attract short-term buyers more than long-term buyers. Short-term buyers amplify volume by selling faster and destabilize prices through positive feedback. Our model matches key aggregate patterns, including the lead–lag price–volume relation and a sharp rise in inventories.

JEL-codes: E32 G02 G12 R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm and nep-mac
Note: AP CF EFG ME
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (46)

Published as Anthony A. DeFusco & Charles G. Nathanson & Eric Zwick, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, vol 146(1), pages 205-229.

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Journal Article: Speculative dynamics of prices and volume (2022) Downloads
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