Toxic Truth: Lead and Fertility

Karen Clay, Margarita Portnykh and Edson Severnini

No 24607, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Using U.S county level data on lead in air for 1978-1988, this paper provides the first causal evidence on the effects of airborne lead exposure on the general fertility rate and the completed fertility rate in the broad population. Instrumental variable estimates show the increase in completed fertility implied by the average observed decrease in airborne lead is 0.14 children per woman, which is 6.4 percent of mean fertility. To explore the current relevance of our findings, we estimate the effect of lead historically accumulated in topsoil on fertility in the 2000s. The results suggest that lead may continue to impair fertility today, both in the United States and in other countries that have significant amounts of lead in topsoil.

JEL-codes: I18 J13 Q52 Q53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-tre
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Published as Karen Clay & Margarita Portnykh & Edson Severnini, 2021. "Toxic Truth: Lead and Fertility," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol 8(5), pages 975-1012.

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Journal Article: Toxic Truth: Lead and Fertility (2021)
Working Paper: Toxic Truth: Lead and Fertility (2018)
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