Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation

Gauti Eggertsson, Manuel Lancastre and Lawrence H. Summers

No 24902, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth. We confirm previous research such as Cutler, Poterba, Sheiner, and Summers (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between measures of population aging and per-capita output growth. Our contribution is demonstrating that this relationship breaks down when the adjustment of interest rates is inhibited by an effective lower bound on nominal rates as took place during the Great Financial Crisis decade. Indeed, during the “secular stagnation regime” of 2008-2015 that prevailed in a number of countries, aging had a negative impact on living standards, consistent with the secular stagnation hypothesis.

JEL-codes: E0 E31 E32 E5 E52 E58 O4 O42 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dem and nep-mac
Note: EFG ME
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

Published as Gauti B. Eggertsson & Manuel Lancastre & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review: Insights, vol 1(3), pages 325-342.

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Journal Article: Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation (2019)
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