Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications

Robert Hodrick () and Tuomas Tomunen

No 25092, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We examine the Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005, 2008) model in several out-of-sample analyzes. The model's one-factor forecasting structure characterizes the term structures of additional currencies in samples ending in 2003. In post-2003 data one-factor structures again characterize each currency's term structure, but we reject equality of the coefficients across the two samples. We derive some implications of the model for the predictability of cross-currency investments, but we find little support for these predictions in either pre-2004 or post-2003 data. The model fails to beat historical average returns in recursive out-or-sample forecasting of excess rates of return for bonds and currencies.

JEL-codes: G12 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
Note: AP IFM
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Published as Robert J. Hodrick & Tuomas Tomunen, 2021. "Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications," Critical Finance Review, vol 10(1), pages 83-123.

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Journal Article: Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications (2021)
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