Will Brexit Age Well? Cohorts, Seasoning and the Age-Leave Gradient, Past, Present and Future

Barry Eichengreen, Rebecca Mari and Gregory Thwaites

No 25219, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: In the UK’s 2016 referendum on EU membership, young voters were more likely than their elders to vote Remain. Applying new methods to a half century of data, we show that this pattern reflects both ageing and cohort effects. Although voters become more Eurosceptical as they age, recent cohorts are also more pro-European than their predecessors. Much of the pro-Europeanism of these recent cohorts is accounted for by their greater years of education. Going forward, the ageing of the electorate will thus be offset at least in part by the replacement of older cohorts with younger, better-educated and more pro-European ones. But we also document large nationwide swings in sentiment that have little to do with either seasoning or cohort effects. Hence these demographic trends are unlikely to be the decisive determinants of future changes in European sentiment. Rather, nationwide changes in sentiment, reflecting macroeconomic or other conditions, and the age-turnout gradient will be key.

JEL-codes: D72 I38 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec
Note: IFM
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Working Paper: Will Brexit Age well? Cohorts, Seasoning and the Age-Leave Gradient, Past, Present and Future (2018)
Working Paper: Will Brexit Age Well? Cohorts, Seasoning and the Age-Leave Gradient, Past, Present and Future (2018)
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