The Long-run Impact of New Medical Ideas on Cancer Survival and Mortality

Frank Lichtenberg

No 25328, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: I investigate whether the types of cancer (breast, colon, lung, etc.) subject to greater penetration of new ideas had larger subsequent survival gains and mortality reductions, controlling for changing incidence. I use the MEDLINE/PubMED database, which contains more than 23 million references to journal articles published in 5400 leading biomedical journals, to construct longitudinal measures of the penetration of new medical ideas. The 5-year survival rate is strongly positively related to the novelty of ideas in articles published 12-24 years earlier. This finding is consistent with evidence from case studies that it takes a long time for research evidence to reach clinical practice. The estimates suggest that about 70% of the 1994-2008 increase in the 5-year observed survival rate for all cancer sites combined may have been due to the increase in the novelty of medical ideas 12-24 years earlier. The number of years of potential life lost from cancer before ages 80 and 70 are inversely related to the novelty of ideas in articles published 12-24 years earlier, conditional on incidence. The increase in medical idea novelty was estimated to have caused a 38% decline in the premature (before age 80) cancer mortality rate 12-24 years later.

JEL-codes: I1 J11 O3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
Note: AG DAE EH PR
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published as "The long-run impact of new medical ideas on cancer survival and mortality," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, December 2018

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