Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics

Oscar Jorda, Sanjay Singh and Alan Taylor

No 26934, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? How do they differ from other economic disasters? We study major pandemics using the rates of return on assets stretching back to the 14th century. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for about decades, with real rates of return substantially depressed, in stark contrast to what happens after wars. Our findings are consistent with the neoclassical growth model: capital is destroyed in wars, but not in pandemics; pandemics instead may induce relative labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings.

JEL-codes: E43 F41 N10 N30 N40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro, nep-his, nep-mac and nep-opm
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Published as Òscar Jordà & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol 104(1), pages 166-175.

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Related works:
Journal Article: Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics (2022)
Working Paper: Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics (2020)
Working Paper: Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics (2020)
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