Learning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial-SIR Model with Behavioral Responses

Alberto Bisin and Andrea Moro

No 27590, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographic characteristics: the number and distribution of outbreaks, population size, density, and agents’ movements. We show that several invariance properties of the SIR model concerning these variables do not hold when agents interact with neighbors in a (two dimensional) geographical space. Indeed, the spatial model’s local interactions generate matching frictions and local herd immunity effects, which play a fundamental role in the infection dynamics. We also show that geographical factors affect how behavioral responses affect the epidemics. We derive relevant implications for estimating the effects of the epidemics and policy interventions that use panel data from several geographical units.

JEL-codes: D01 I12 R10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
Note: EH PE
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

Published as Alberto Bisin & Andrea Moro, 2021. "JUE insight: Learning epidemiology by doing: The empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses," Journal of Urban Economics, .

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Working Paper: Learning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial-SIR Model with Behavioral Responses (2021)
Working Paper: Learning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial SIR Model with Behavioral Responses (2020)
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