Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits

Tamma A. Carleton, Amir Jina, Michael T. Delgado, Michael Greenstone, Trevor Houser, Solomon M. Hsiang, Andrew Hultgren, Robert Kopp (), Kelly E. McCusker, Ishan B. Nath, James Rising, Ashwin Rode, Hee Kwon Seo, Arvid Viaene, Jiacan Yuan and Alice Tianbo Zhang

No 27599, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Using 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extreme cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by both higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high emissions scenario, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [-$7.8, $73.0]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude.

JEL-codes: H23 H41 I14 Q51 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-env
Note: EEE
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (46)

Published as Tamma Carleton & Amir Jina & Michael Delgado & Michael Greenstone & Trevor Houser & Solomon Hsiang & Andrew Hultgren & Robert E Kopp & Kelly E McCusker & Ishan Nath & James Rising & Ashwin Rode & Hee Kwon Seo & Arvid Viaene & Jiacan Yuan & Alice Tianbo Zhang, 2022. "Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol 137(4), pages 2037-2105.

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w27599.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits (2023)
Working Paper: Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27599

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w27599

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().