Testing for Parameter Instability and Structural Change in Persistent Predictive Regressions

Torben Andersen and Rasmus T. Varneskov

No 28570, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper develops parameter instability and structural change tests within predictive regressions for economic systems governed by persistent vector autoregressive dynamics. Specifically, in a setting where all – or a subset – of the variables may be fractionally integrated and the predictive relation may feature cointegration, we provide sup-Wald break tests that are constructed using the Local speCtruM (LCM) approach. The new tests cover both parameter variation and multiple structural changes with unknown break dates, and the number of breaks being known or unknown. We establish asymptotic limit theory for the tests, showing that it coincides with standard testing procedures. As a consequence, existing critical values for tied-down Bessel processes may be applied, without modification. We implement the new structural change tests to explore the stability of the fractionally cointegrating relation between implied- and realized volatility (IV and RV). Moreover, we assess the relative efficiency of IV forecasts against a challenging time-series benchmark constructed from high-frequency data. Unlike existing studies, we find evidence that the IV-RV cointegrating relation is unstable, and that carefully constructed time-series forecasts are more efficient than IV in capturing low-frequency movements in RV.

JEL-codes: G12 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm
Note: AP TWP
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published as Torben G. Andersen & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2021. "Testing for parameter instability and structural change in persistent predictive regressions," Journal of Econometrics, .

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w28570.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Testing for parameter instability and structural change in persistent predictive regressions (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28570

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w28570

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().