Behavior and the Dynamics of Epidemics

Atkeson, Andrew

Behavior and the Dynamics of Epidemics

No 28760, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: I use a model of private and public behavior to mitigate disease transmission during the COVID pandemic over the past year in the United States to address two questions: What dynamics of infections and deaths should we expect to see from a pandemic? What are our options for mitigating the impact of a pandemic on public health? I find that behavior turns what would be a short and extremely sharp epidemic into a long, drawn out one. Absent the development of a technological solution such as vaccines or life-saving therapeutics, additional public health interventions suffer from rapidly diminishing returns in improving long-run outcomes. In contrast, rapidly implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, in combination with the rapid development of technological solutions, could have saved nearly 300,000 lives relative to what is now projected to occur.

JEL-codes: C0 I0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
Note: EFG EH
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published as Andrew Atkeson, 2021. "Behavior and the Dynamics of Epidemics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol 2021(1), pages 67-88.

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