From Just in Time, to Just in Case, to Just in Worst-Case: Simple models of a Global Supply Chain under Uncertain Aggregate Shocks

Bomin Jiang, Daniel E. Rigobon and Roberto Rigobon

No 29345, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Covid-19 highlighted the weaknesses in the supply chain. Many have argued that a more resilient or robust supply chain is needed. But what does a robust supply chain mean? And how do firms’ decisions change when taken that approach? This paper studies a very stylized model of a supply chain, where we study how the decision of a multinational corporation changes in the presence of uncertainty. The two standard theories of supply chain are Just-in-time and Just-in-case. Just-in-time argues in favor of pursuing efficiency, while Just-in-case studies how such decision changes when the firm faces idiosyncratic risk. We find that a robust supply chain is very different specially in the presence of systemic shocks. In this case, firms need to concentrate on the worst-case. This strategy implies a supply chain where the allocation of resources and capabilities does not correspond to the standard theories studied in economics, but follow a heuristic behavioral rule called “probability matching”. It has been found in nature and in experimental research that subjects appeal to probability matching when seeking survival. We find that a robust supply chain will reproduce this behavioral outcome. In fact, a multinational optimizing under uncertainty, follows a probability matching which leads to an allocation that is suboptimal from the individual producer point of view, but rules out the possibility of supply disruptions.

JEL-codes: E7 F02 F12 F13 L15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp, nep-int, nep-mac and nep-ore
Note: IFM ITI
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Published as Bomin Jiang & Daniel Rigobon & Roberto Rigobon, 2022. "From Just-in-Time, to Just-in-Case, to Just-in-Worst-Case: Simple Models of a Global Supply Chain under Uncertain Aggregate Shocks," IMF Economic Review, vol 70(1), pages 141-184.

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Journal Article: From Just-in-Time, to Just-in-Case, to Just-in-Worst-Case: Simple Models of a Global Supply Chain under Uncertain Aggregate Shocks (2022)
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