The Downward Spiral

Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Karen Kopecky

No 29764, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, a model is constructed where individuals choose whether to use opioids recreationally, knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying. These odds are functions of recreational opioid usage. Markov chains are estimated from the US data for the college and non-college educated that summarize the transitions into and out of opioid addiction as well as to a deadly overdose. The structural model is constructed to match the estimated Markov chains. The epidemic’s drivers and the impact of medical interventions are examined.

JEL-codes: D11 E13 E70 I12 I14 I31 J11 J17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-hea and nep-mac
Note: EFG EH
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Downward Spiral (2022)
Working Paper: The Downward Spiral (2022)
Working Paper: The Downward Spiral (2022)
Working Paper: The Downward Spiral (2022)
Working Paper: The Downward Spiral (2022)
Working Paper: The Downward Spiral (2022)
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