Gaps Between Official and Excess Covid-19 Mortality Measures: The Effects of Institutional Quality and Vaccinations

Joshua Aizenman, Alex Cukierman, Yothin Jinjarak, Sameer Nair-Desai and Weining Xin

No 29778, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We evaluate quartile rankings of countries during the Covid-19 pandemic using both official (confirmed) and excess mortality data. By December 2021, the quartile rankings of three-fifths of the countries differ when ranked by excess vs. official mortality. Countries that are ‘doing substantially better’ in the excess mortality are characterized by higher urban population shares; higher GDP/Capita; and higher scores on institutional and policy variables. We perform two regressions in which the ratio of Cumulative Excess to Official Covid-19 mortalities (E/O ratio) is regressed on covariates. In a narrow study, controlling for GDP/Capita and vaccination rates, by December 2021 the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher vaccination rates. In a broad study, adding institutional and policy variables, the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher degree of voice and accountability. The arrival of vaccines in 2021 and voice and accountability had a discernible association on the E/O ratio.

JEL-codes: F5 F6 H12 H84 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-02
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Published as Joshua Aizenman & Alex Cukierman & Yothin Jinjarak & Sameer Nair-Desai & Weining Xin, 2022. "Gaps between official and excess Covid-19 mortality measures: The effects of institutional quality and vaccinations," Economic Modelling, .

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