Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting

Osea Giuntella, Lorenzo Rotunno and Luca Stella

No 30119, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to globalization on the fertility and marital behavior in Germany, until recently a lowest-low fertility setting. We find that exposure to greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated, married men, and full-time workers and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (extensive margin). While there is evidence of some fertility postponement, we find significant effects on completed fertility. There is instead little evidence of any significant impact on marital behavior.

JEL-codes: F1 F16 J1 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-eur, nep-int and nep-lab
Note: CH LS
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Published as Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2022. "Globalization, Fertility, and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting," Demography, .

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Working Paper: Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting (2022)
Working Paper: Globalization, Fertility, and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting (2022)
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