The Fertility Consequences of Air Pollution in China

Xuwen Gao, Ran Song and Christopher Timmins

No 30165, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We incorporate pollution exposure into Becker’s “Quantity-Quality” (Q-Q) model of fertility and quantify how air pollution distorts individuals’ fertility behaviors in China. We document a robust pattern in which increased pollution over time negatively affects the fertility of ethnic Han people, who comprise approximately 92% of the Chinese population. These patterns are evident in both cross-sectional and panel data, when instrumenting for pollution using distant coal-fired plants upwind of cities or thermal inversions that trap pollution. Consistent with the stylized Q-Q model of fertility, we find that increased pollution drives up the parental expenditure per child, which increases the shadow price associated with the number of children and reduces fertility. Consistent with the model, we also find that the fertility choices of people who tend to have higher demand for child quality are significantly more sensitive to pollution changes. Pollution does not have a meaningful effect on the fertility of ethnic minorities, which can also be explained under the Q-Q framework.

JEL-codes: J13 J24 Q53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-ene and nep-env
Note: DEV EEE
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Published as Xuwen Gao & Ran Song & Christopher Timmins, 2024. "The Fertility Consequences of Air Pollution in China," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol 11(3), pages 657-688.

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