Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending

Ricardo Correa, Julian di Giovanni, Linda Goldberg and Camelia Minoiu

No 31860, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper uses U.S. credit register data and the 2018–2019 Trade War to study the effects of uncertainty on domestic credit supply. Exploiting differences in banks’ ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty, we find that increased uncertainty is associated with a broad lending contraction across their customer firms. This result is consistent with banks responding to uncertainty with wait-and-see behaviors, where more exposed banks curtail risky exposures, reduce loan maturities, and adjust loan supply along both intensive and extensive margins. The lending contraction is larger for more capital-constrained banks and has significant real effects, especially for bank-dependent firms.

JEL-codes: F34 F42 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-cfn and nep-int
Note: CF EFG IFM ITI ME
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w31860.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending (2024)
Working Paper: Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending (2023)
Working Paper: Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending (2023)
Working Paper: Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31860

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w31860

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().