Dealing with Imperfect Randomization: Inference for the HighScope Perry Preschool Program

James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto and Azeem Shaikh

No 31982, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper considers the problem of making inferences about the effects of a program on multiple outcomes when the assignment of treatment status is imperfectly randomized. By imperfect randomization we mean that treatment status is reassigned after an initial randomization on the basis of characteristics that may be observed or unobserved by the analyst. We develop a partial identification approach to this problem that makes use of information limiting the extent to which randomization is imperfect to show that it is still possible to make nontrivial inferences about the effects of the program in such settings. We consider a family of null hypotheses in which each null hypothesis specifies that the program has no effect on one of many outcomes of interest. Under weak assumptions, we construct a procedure for testing this family of null hypotheses in a way that controls the familywise error rate--the probability of even one false rejection--in finite samples. We develop our methodology in the context of a reanalysis of the HighScope Perry Preschool program. We find statistically significant effects of the program on a number of different outcomes of interest, including outcomes related to criminal activity for males and females, even after accounting for imperfections in the randomization and the multiplicity of null hypotheses.

JEL-codes: C31 I21 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem and nep-edu
Note: CH ED TWP
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published as James Heckman & Rodrigo Pinto & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2024. "Dealing with imperfect randomization: Inference for the highscope perry preschool program," Journal of Econometrics, .

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w31982.pdf (application/pdf)
Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.

Related works:
Journal Article: Dealing with imperfect randomization: Inference for the highscope perry preschool program (2024)
Working Paper: Dealing with Imperfect Randomization: Inference for the HighScope Perry Preschool Program (2023)
Working Paper: Dealing With Imperfect Randomization: Inference for the Highscope Perry Preschool Program (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31982

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w31982
The price is Paper copy available by mail.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().