Prediction Markets to Forecast Electricity Demand

Nabil I. Al-Najjar and Luciano De Castro

No 1529, Discussion Papers from Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science

Abstract: A preference is invariant with respect to a transformation tau if its ranking of acts is unaffected by a reshuffling of the states under tau. We show that any invariant preference must be parametric: there is a unique sufficient set of parameters such that the preference ranks acts according to their expected utility given the parameters. This property holds for all non-trivial preferences, provided only that they are reflexive, transitive, monotone, continuous and mixture linear.

Date: 2010-10-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-for and nep-ind
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