Using Admission Tests to Predict Success in College — Evidence from the University of Puerto Rico

James F Ragan (), Dong Li and Horacio Matos-Diaz ()
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James F Ragan: Department of Economics, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas 66506, USA.

Eastern Economic Journal, 2011, vol. 37, issue 4, 470-487

Abstract: In making admission decisions, many colleges have de-emphasized standardized test scores. Using data for seven cohorts of applicants to the University of Puerto Rico, we assess the ability of test scores and other proxies of academic potential to predict student GPA. We study sample selection and address a dilemma facing admissions offices: college grades of non-matriculants are unknowable. We find that decreasing the weight on admission tests benefits females and students from public high schools and that college grades can be predicted more accurately by increasing (decreasing) the weight on mathematical aptitude for students choosing more (less) quantitative programs.

Date: 2011
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