Do Farmers Perceive the Trends of Local Climate Variability Accurately? An Analysis of Farmers’ Perceptions and Meteorological Data in Myanmar

Yarzar Hein, Kampanat Vijitsrikamol, Witsanu Attavanich and Penporn Janekarnkij

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: With the existing state of issues related to global climate change, the accuracy of farmers’ perceptions of climate is critically important if they plan to implement appropriate adaptation measures in their farming. This article evaluated if farmers perceive the trends of local climate variability accurately, and was verified by the historical meteorological data analysis. Ordered probit perception models were applied in this study to determine the factors influencing the accuracy of farmer perception. It was observed that farmers’ perceptions of the rainfall amount during the early, mid, and late monsoon periods were highly accurate, and they also accurately perceived summer temperature change, but less accuracy of perception was observed of the temperate changes of the winter and monsoon seasons. Access to weekly weather information, participation in agricultural trainings, farming experience, and education level of the farmer were the major factors determining the accuracy of perception in this study. Based on the empirical results, this study suggested policy implications for (a) the locally specified weather information distribution, and (b) integration of weather information into agricultural training programs, which are available to the farming community to enhance the government implantation of the Myanmar Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy and Myanmar Climate Change Master Plan 2018–2030.

Keywords: accuracy of perception; climate trend; climate variability; Myanmar; ordered probit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q12 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-03, Revised 2019-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm, nep-dev, nep-env and nep-sea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Published in Climate 7.64(2019): pp. 1-21

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:93990

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