Exports-Economic Growth Causality: Evidence from CEE Countries

Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi (monica.pop@econ.ubbcluj.ro)
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Monica Ioana Pop Silaghi: Babe Bolyai University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Monica Ioana Pop-Silaghi (monica.silaghi@econ.ubbcluj.ro)

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2009, vol. 6, issue 2, 105-117

Abstract: hypothesis (GLE) for the Central and Eastern European Countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia) through cointegration and causality tests. The estimation is carried out within finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) models in levels, in first-differences and error correction models. When considering bivariate systems, causality from exports to GDP is obtained for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Causality from GDP to exports is indicated for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania and Slovenia. We also investigate if the above results still hold when including the other relevant component of the foreign trade, i.e. imports. In trivariate systems, ELG remains valid in the Czech Republic only and becomes valid in Lithuania while GLE is validated in Hungary, Romania and Slovenia.

Keywords: CEE countries; exports; economic growth; imports; cointegration; Granger causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F43 O57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:2:p:105-117

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