How agricultural producers use local knowledge, climate information, and on-farm “experiments” to address drought risk

Adam J. Snitker (), Laurie Yung (), Elizabeth Covelli Metcalf (), R. Kyle Bocinsky (), Neva Hassanein (), Kelsey Jensco (), Ada P. Smith () and Austin Schuver ()
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Adam J. Snitker: University of Montana
Laurie Yung: University of Montana
Elizabeth Covelli Metcalf: University of Montana
R. Kyle Bocinsky: University of Montana
Neva Hassanein: University of Montana
Kelsey Jensco: University of Montana
Ada P. Smith: University of Montana
Austin Schuver: University of Montana

Agriculture and Human Values, 2024, vol. 41, issue 4, No 34, 1857-1875

Abstract: Abstract Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of drought in many parts of the world, including Montana. In the face of worsening drought conditions, agricultural producers need to adapt their operations to mitigate risk. This study examined the role of local knowledge and climate information in drought-related decisions through five focus groups with Montana farmers and ranchers. We found that trust and risk perceptions mediated how producers utilized both local knowledge and climate information. More specifically, producers relied on local knowledge in drought-related decisions, regarding their own observation and past experience as trustworthy and not particularly risky. In contrast, climate information and seasonal climate forecasts in particular were regarded as risky and untrustworthy, largely due to a perceived lack of accuracy. Since producers tended to be risk averse, especially given market and climate uncertainties, they rarely relied on “risky” climate information. At the same time, producers actively managed risk and tested out new technologies and practices through processes of trial and error, what they called “experimenting,” which enabled them to build firsthand knowledge of potential adaptations. In the context of uncertainty and risk aversion, programs that reduce the financial risk of experimenting with new technologies and adaptive practices are needed to enable producers to develop direct experience with innovations designed to mitigate drought risk. Further, scientists developing climate information need to work directly with farmers and ranchers to better integrate local knowledge into climate information.

Keywords: Drought risk; Seasonal climate forecasts; Agricultural adaptation; Climate services; Climate information; Agricultural decision-making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10460-024-10582-3

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