Two information aggregation mechanisms for predicting the opening weekend box office revenues of films: Boxoffice Prophecy and Guess of Guesses

David Court, Benjamin Gillen, Jordi Mckenzie () and Charles R. Plott ()
Additional contact information
David Court: AFTRS
Benjamin Gillen: Caltech
Charles R. Plott: Caltech

Economic Theory, 2018, vol. 65, issue 1, No 2, 25-54

Abstract: Abstract Field tests were conducted on two new information aggregation mechanism designs. The mechanisms were designed to collect information held as intuitions about opening weekend box office revenues for movies in Australia. The principles on which the mechanisms operate and their capacity to collect information are explored. A pari-mutuel mechanism produces a predicted probability distribution over box office amounts that is, with the exception of very small films, indistinguishable from the actual revenues. The second mechanism is based on guessing the guesses of others and when applied under conditions where incentives for accuracy are unavailable still performs well against data.

Keywords: Information aggregation; Mechanism design; Experiment; Prediction market; Field test; Box office (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C70 C9 C92 C93 D01 D02 D03 D47 G14 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Working Paper: Two Information Aggregation Mechanisms for Predicting the Opening Weekend Box Office Revenues of Films: Boxoffice Prophecy and Guess of Guesses (2015)
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DOI: 10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1

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