Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain’s regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model

Oscar Claveria, Enric Monte () and Salvador Torra ()
Additional contact information
Enric Monte: Polytechnic University of Catalunya
Salvador Torra: University of Barcelona

SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2016, vol. 7, issue 3, No 3, 357 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study presents an extension of the Gaussian process regression model for multiple-input multiple-output forecasting. This approach allows modelling the cross-dependencies between a given set of input variables and generating a vectorial prediction. Making use of the existing correlations in international tourism demand to all seventeen regions of Spain, the performance of the proposed model is assessed in a multiple-step-ahead forecasting comparison. The results of the experiment in a multivariate setting show that the Gaussian process regression model significantly improves the forecasting accuracy of a multi-layer perceptron neural network used as a benchmark. The results reveal that incorporating the connections between different markets in the modelling process may prove very useful to refine predictions at a regional level.

Keywords: Machine learning; Gaussian process regression; Neural networks; Multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO); Economic forecasting; Tourism demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C45 C51 C53 C63 E27 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13209-016-0144-7 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:series:v:7:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s13209-016-0144-7

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/13209

DOI: 10.1007/s13209-016-0144-7

Access Statistics for this article

SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association is currently edited by Nezih Guner

More articles in SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association from Springer, Spanish Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().